Big Ten women's basketball early 2005-06 predictions:

I will preface this by saying that I am a Michigan fan, and so from a purely biased, fan standpoint of course the Wolverines will always be my pick to win anything and everything. That being said, they finished dead last in the Big Ten in 2004-05 and so they should realistically be considered a longshot to win the league in 2005-06. Then again, as the old sports cliche goes: they play the games for a reason. One never knows what might happen, and with the skillful coaching of Cheryl Burnett and her staff Michigan may indeed shock the college hoops world. Be that as it may, here is my early call for the Big Ten women:

1) THE Ohio State University (as they like to call themselves)-the Buckeyes lost a fine player to graduation in Caity Matter, but they still have a fine team and look to be the best of four very good teams at the top.

2) Purdue-their overall record was not that great last year but I thought they were a better team than the numbers may have indicated. The Boilermakers always seem to be a factor in the Big Ten and this year will be no different.

3) Michigan State-last year's NCAA finalists lost two very good players (Haynie and Roehrig) but still have enough left that they should not slip too far. Not yet, anyway!

4) Minnesota-the Gophers also lost a very good player (Janel McCarville) but like tOSU and MSU they have more than adequate talent to take up the slack.

These four teams appear to be the best of the league and will likely fill the top four spots. The actual order may vary somewhat, and it is possible that some other team(s) may displace one or more of them, but the general sense is that these are the teams that the other seven will be trying to measure up to. These four will definitely make the NCAA tournament.

5) Iowa-the Hawkeyes have a solid history of success in women's basketball (and women's sports in general) and they look at this point to be the "best of the rest." They may even be good enough to slip into the top four.

6) Michigan-it may be my Maize and Blue glasses affecting my perception here, but I really do feel like the Wolverines can improve enough to finish in the middle of the pack. Although they only won five overall games last year and only one in the league, many games were close enough that they could have been wins. Michigan lost Tabitha Pool to graduation and Becky Flippin to attrition, but there will be more experience on this season's team and so the record will be better.

7) Illinois-the Illini have been very inconsistent for some time now. They win some, they lose some, they seem to have a fair amount of talent but usually end up somewhere in the middle of the pack. Until they prove otherwise I can't see ranking them too much higher than this.

8) Wisconsin-like Michigan, this is a program that has been in rebuilding mode for the last few seasons. They are improving and may finish a bit higher than this, or they might finish a bit lower but probably not too much lower.

Iowa is probably the team that I am most certain about as far as where they will finish. They are a good team but probably not quite good enough to make the top four...on the other hand at this point they look better than the rest. Sixth through eighth place look like a toss up, much like places one through four. This group will be "on the bubble" for the NCAA with the fifth place team most likely to make it. The other three (as long as they finish better than .500 overall) will at least make the postseason NIT. Which brings me to the bottom three:

9) Penn State-it is hard to believe that the Lions could fall this far but it is a good possibility that they will. They have only nine players on their roster and it is a young and inexperienced group...much like Michigan last year and we all know (Wolverine fans like me in particular) how difficult that can make things. Controversy continues to surround Coach Portland, who despite her solid won-lost record appears to have some serious issues when it comes to relating to the players (there are also allegations of an anti-gay bias on her part). This may be a meltdown in the making.

10) Northwestern
11) Indiana

I will comment on these two together. They could finish in this order or vice versa. If Penn State totally collapses then they may sink to eleventh place and allow these two to move up a bit. Both the Wildcats and the Hoosiers appear to be in the same predicament in women's hoops that they are in football. They try hard, they change coaches, they bring in new players, but they continue to struggle to win in a very tough conference. They will almost certainly bring up the rear in 2005-06, unless as I say things completely go bad in Happy Valley. The bottom three will not be going anywhere after the regular season unless one of them somehow wins the Big Ten tournament and gets the automatic NCAA bid.

That's how I see it at this point, with the start of the season still several months away.